Brisbane Property Market Update, October 2026: Rates Are Up and Brisbane Is Falling. What's the Reality?
Lightly cleaned reading transcript. Speaker labels and timestamps removed; conversational wording retained. Not intended for subtitle synchronisation.
Welcome back, guys. Another episode. Curtis, here to take you through another market update. Oh, we've got all the good news for you. Yeah. No, heaps of good news around. Yeah. Good news starting off is the over-40s Cricket World Cup is coming up; in the Caribbean. Yeah, so looking forward to that. What's your role in it again? I'm one of the coaches. There ou go. And I'll be the entertainment activities officer. Not throwing one over? No, I hope not. What's your specialty? Little leggies? Bowl off spin or a batter. There you go.
No one likes fielding, so try and keep that to a minimum. Pretty crouched over all the time, good at the slips. No chasing balls in the outfield. Yeah, 10 blokes in the slips and no one in the outfield. Yeah, and no one bowling pace to catch in the slips. Although we've got a couple. Our quicks are pretty good. Yeah, okay. What are your chances? We won the T20 World Cup in Pakistan last year, so I think we'll be a reasonable chance. Because most of the over-40s cricket is self-funded, the home nation always has better access to players, because they don't have to pay as much money to go.
So the West Indies are hosting, they've got five former Test players in their squad, and we play them first up. Big challenge. So that'll be a big challenge. One of the good things for us is the local media are going to put it on free-to-air TV in the West Indies. Oh, awesome. So they'll have a game on each day. So that's good. And we've actually got a request for a media interview on arrival into Georgetown, which will be an interesting experience, but painful, because we actually get in at midnight. And they said, "We will definitely be there to interview at least your captain."
Which also is a pain, because our previous stop is Miami, so everyone's going to have to get into their official outfit, blazer and long pants, for the changeover, so that when we get off the plane, everyone looks neat and presentable. At the end of a 34-hour journey, that's probably not going to be everyone's cup of tea, to do that in a midnight arrival. The joys of travelling with sports teams, mate. Yeah, done it a fair bit, and so have you. There's always interesting things that happen. There's always a few more beers on the flight home than there is on the flight there. We hope that's the case. But back to our chances: the two previous World Cups we've done well, so we've got a good squad.
We've got seven or eight blokes that have played first-class cricket as well, so we've got a strong enough side. What's the format? How many countries are participating? There's 16 countries, so there's two pools of eight. Play everyone in your pool, and then cross over for semis and finals. So you've got to finish in the top two in your pool to be a chance of getting in the grand final. It'll be good experience. Who's best on ground typically? Our best on ground... Or off ground. Off ground. We've got quite a few candidates for that. Richie Wilde, actually, he's leaving two days before everybody else because he'll need that prep time. So he's generally best on ground, but we have a number of candidates. There's no vodka getting changed out for water in the water bottles at the drinks breaks?
No, our chat on the weekend was about a few blokes buying duty-free alcohol, and the advantage of going to the West Indies, and Guyana in particular, is there's no point doing that because the alcohol's cheaper when you get there. It was one of the first things that got put on our post. Cheaper than water? Yeah, just about. So we'll try a few of the local drinks out. I'm very jealous. Hope it's a sports trip. Sports trips are just awesome. Yeah, one of the other organisers will be sort of the Allan Langer of the group, the off-field activities organiser. You dancing on the table at the Normanby later?
But it's a tiring event, because we've got two lead-in games, seven pool games, a semi and a final. So there's 11 games of cricket, and that's all done within 15 days. There's a lot of old joints going to be sore. Yeah, so we're taking our own physio, and he's an over-40s player that was close to getting picked in the side. This is one of the funny rules: you're only allowed 16 in your squad, and you're not allowed to replace for injuries until you get down to 13 players. So you have to have three completely ruled out of the tournament before you're allowed to replace them with anyone.
And we've probably got a couple of our support staff who are capable cricketers. You talking about yourself? No, I'm way too old now. 58, over-40s is... Leaping in here with that knee. Yeah, with my knee, it's no good. I'm involved in the over-50s cricket as well. You watch the over-40s, and 40 to 49, there's not much difference in terms of people's agility in the field. When you watch the over-50s, you can sort of tell who's over 53 or 54. That seems to be the limit of where physical mobility starts to drop off a fair bit.
There's been a bit of a drop-off in the local housing market recently. Yeah, let's talk about that. How's that for a segue? This'll be not as exciting news, probably. We can talk more cricket later. Oh, what about the Wallabies beating South Africa? With 11 men as well. Yeah, that was interesting. Last 15 minutes went for 35 minutes. Hopefully the Test team can do the same. Yeah, cricket starts Friday, and the Wallabies have the All Blacks coming up, so that'll be interesting. It's all happening.
Well, let's jump into last month's data. It's just come out. I'll rattle off the numbers like we always do, and then spin it from there. So Brisbane: obviously all this data is lagged and trails a few months, because you're waiting for settled data to come through. So as expected, the numbers are starting to get worse as more time passes since budget night, because those first few months weren't really reflective of what was happening at the time.
But now, for the last month, Brisbane was down 1.5%, which was pretty big compared to the other capitals, which is also to be expected. 1.5% in a month. One and a half doesn't sound like much, but if it runs for 12 months, that's significant. And that was reflective of what was happening two to three months ago, with the lagging nature of this data. Which puts us at −4.7% for the quarter, but still up close to 6% over the last rolling 12 months. You would expect that number to drop a little bit each month as the good months roll out and the bad months substitute them. But still, for a rolling 12-month period, it's still a reasonable market. Obviously that's not what it is now, though.
It's good news for buyers still. Well, there's heaps of opportunities, right? And we'll dig into it. One that piqued my interest was the number of listings on market was up over 50% compared to this time last year. New listings are slightly up, about 5% compared to this time last year. But there's so much more choice for buyers that are in a position and ready to go. And it gives you time to do the research, instead of getting rushed into making an offer within 10 minutes of seeing a property, and not being able to take in everything in regards to what may be on offer. Yeah, exactly. I think days on market has stretched out to 35 days. This time last year it was 19 days for something to sell. So again, you've got time to assess, maybe go through a second or third time before you really commit.
Again, the right properties in highly competitive areas are still going pretty quick. I know you went to one on the weekend that sold within seven days. So good properties where vendor expectations are realistic still move fast. But generally speaking, you do have a little bit more time as a buyer, which is great, because you can get really comfortable with the decision you're making, and hopefully you've got a bit of leverage to go and negotiate a really good price.
And sometimes the days on market numbers are skewed a little bit. Even from 12 months ago, the 19 days: the auction clearance rate 12 months ago was, I think, in the 60s and 70s percent. It's down in the low 30s now. But when the market was like it was six months ago, most things that weren't going to auction were actually sold within the first seven days. And the numbers can actually get skewed out longer during busy times, because auctions are on the market for sometimes 28 days before they have the auction. So a busy market and a good auction clearance rate can actually increase the average days on market. Yeah, for sure. So the 35 days, we're probably still going to see that stretch out a little bit.
And on the back of all this, we obviously saw another rate rise as well. That's the other good news for people. So the base rate is up to 4.6. Interesting thing there is a lot of the banks are still forecasting another rate rise in November, because their fixed rates have gone up around nearly half a percent. So they're forecasting there's going to be another rate rise. Yeah, tracking the fixed rates is always a good one for where the banks think things are going to go, right? They put a lot more time and money into trying to predict those things than we do. So it's a pretty good indicator. Yeah, I saw that really highlighted this week.
Which, as a buyer, if you are in a position to be ready to go and there are expected rate rises, you can factor that into your actual serviceability. But it might affect how much you can actually borrow, because every time there's a rate rise, serviceability drops on the calculators. There are buffers put in, and you obviously need to feel comfortable with those repayments. But maybe your budget drops 50 grand as a result of one or two rate rises. You have to start looking in different areas sometimes. Yeah, it pushes you again, doesn't it?
I suppose another stat that I've been keeping an eye on is the actual sales volumes pushing through compared to this time last year. So sales are down about 27, 27.5% compared to this time last year, which is a considerable chunk of volume and is not really a surprise given what we're seeing. It supports why there's a number of properties still on the market, because things aren't selling and vendors and buyers aren't meeting in the middle. A lot of withdrawn listings in that regard as well. But I think in the media there's this narrative that buyers have completely dried up. There's definitely less out there, but if you see three-quarters of sales are still happening, it means there's still buyers out there transacting, right?
So there are people still active in this market, and there are people getting good deals and finding good value. It's just about the strategy you implement to get there, and the conditions that go with sales, too. I know we've spoken about it previously in other episodes, but subject-to-sale conditions are coming in. I'm seeing it more and more every week. Yeah, that'll be nearly standard again now. I've just had a client who's just picked up a place around the corner here, and they've gone subject to sale of their home, so they've got 60 days to sell their home. The person they're buying off has got their next place under contract, subject to sale, to the next property.
So there's three properties in this chain now that are all subject to sale. Agents love that. Well, the agent's controlling the process because they're selling each one, which I suppose keeps everyone in the loop and feeling like they're a chance, because that agent's got so much riding on it. And it helps communication and whatnot, but at the end of the day, whoever's at the top of that chain has got more risk than everybody else. But it could also topple everything else along the way, right? And the thing with that is everyone has to be prepared to renegotiate during the process.
Especially as prices drop. Because if you, as the vendor, went under contract with a subject-to-sale, and then two months later that property sells and the market's dropped another one or two percent, and the purchaser of that property hasn't got what they wanted, then to make the sale happen, their buyers might need to come back to the table, like you said, and renegotiate. Yeah, and we see that happen. Someone I know close to where I live, his purchase was subject to him selling. He got a price below what he expected to get, below what experienced agents told him was the expectation.
He accepted a price lower than that on the proviso that the sellers of the property he's buying were prepared to negotiate downwards, and he's actually ended up with a net $60,000 difference in his favour. So there are those opportunities, and you need experienced people in the marketplace who have been through this before to help you through those troubled waters. And it's an opportunity that a lot of people have probably never even thought is a thing, but sometimes you need to be able to spot it. Yeah, and selling property any time is stressful. There's a heap of things going on. So the more stressed you are, the less likely you are to have a clear process that gets you the result you're after.
So if you've got outside help doing that for you, taking away some of the thought process and negotiations, it can help you get through that period with a good win. Yeah, for sure. The agent's the one conveying the message, but if you can help convey what you're thinking to them, to get it to the owner... The sales agent wants a deal done at the end of the day. But as a vendor, if you're anchored to a price, you think you've got this property sold for this, and then to go back to the table... Can't celebrate too early. Yeah, exactly.
It's not done until it's done. And that's the main thing in real estate. You've got to wait until it's unconditional. That's when anyone can be comfortable and know what's happened and be secure in what's happening. So getting to that stage is where the nitty-gritty needs to be sorted out, getting it to an unconditional stage. And it's funny, coming back to the sales volumes dropping by that 25 to 27%. We were talking about it earlier: you do a lot of work with an agency on the north side, and your experience with them and the sales data they send out is that they're still selling.
Yeah, the volume hasn't changed for them. They put out their weekly update of sold properties, and compared to February and now, today in October, the sales per week, it's the same length email. It's got the same number of properties in there. And it's a fair point to make that they're a dominant agency in that area, so people are probably looking to go to them in this market to sell. Yeah, and a dominant agency normally means you've got well-experienced sales agents, so they're able to negotiate well and still get things sold and across the line. And as a buyer, sometimes that's what you want.
You want an agent that's got that experience and is able to renegotiate things as the process unfolds in terms of trying to secure a contract. They can help you get that achieved. Yeah, there's always a middle ground to find between vendors and buyers, but I think sales agents are really earning their dollar at the moment to get their vendors to come and meet where the market is. Because not everyone goes to a sales agent, gets an appraisal, signs a Form 6 and lists the next day. No. They might have got that appraisal two, three, four months before making the decision to sell. So say we're in October now; maybe that was done pre-budget.
Maybe that was done in February or March. They've taken a few months to commit, then they've signed up, they've done a few little things around the house. Now they've taken it to market, and it's been on the market for 35 days. Yeah, and things have changed a lot. And the number from that appraisal the agent gave is very different to where the market is now. Yeah, and we're seeing that all the time. I spoke to you about one earlier this morning, in an area with that exact scenario: someone was told a value close to 1.1 prior to the budget. They took some time before going to market, looking at renting it out, sorting out what the family were going to do, and now they're on the market at 875 and still don't have offers.
And I think as a buyer, we've spoken about it when the market moves up, and the same principle applies now that it's come down and cooled off: use the most recent sales to give you the confidence that you aren't overpaying for a property, or that you could negotiate a better price. Traditionally, as a valuer, you're looking at sales within the last six months. But let's be honest, sales that happened six months ago aren't applicable. Conversely, 12 months ago, they also weren't applicable, because it was moving up too fast, right? So you're trying to find sales that have happened in the last one or two months. They're probably not even settled yet, and that just comes from being in the market, knowing agents and being able to get sales prices that aren't disclosed yet because they haven't gone unconditional.
But you need to know what's transacting in that space to give you confidence that what you're paying or what you're offering is a fair price. If you're going to be in the marketplace, either as a seller or a buyer, on realestate.com, in the filter section for sold properties, you can pick the timeframe, and it's important at the moment that you click on three months. Even less. Just on the back of that, a couple of key takeaways for anyone who is in the market at the moment: what would your recommendations or key points be? Key points would be: do your research and be patient. Get as much information as you can. You've got time to do that now. Build relationships within the marketplace where you're looking to purchase.
So talk to plenty of sales agents in that area, because they can make you aware of off-market opportunities and recent sales data. And negotiation: be in a position where you can strongly negotiate on your purchase price. And if you don't have the time or the experience to do those things, then get someone who can do that for you, someone who has plenty of experience in those areas. They can save you time and it'll save you stress. Emotionally, you'll be better off. It can get you a better purchase. So look at using an expert, such as ourselves, as a buyer's agent, because you might be surprised how much money they can actually save you. No, awesome. Some really key points.
And knowledge is power. Keep doing your research, build relationships, and get someone who knows how to turn the screws to get a good price. Yeah, that's right. Negotiate strongly. Yeah, exactly. Awesome. Well, that is a wrap for the month. Good luck at the World Cup, mate.
Thank you. We'll be trying our best. Not too many beers. No, we won't be doing that. We want to win. We want to come home with a trophy. That's going to be the most important thing. Well, I always think of the saying: second is last. You want to be the winner. The only things people remember. If you ain't first, you're last. Yeah, exactly. That's right. Too good. Well, good luck, mate. Come back with a trophy for us.
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