Hi everyone, I'm Curtis Browning, and this is Trent Ryan from Investeps Property. Welcome to our first Brisbane Property Pulse podcast. Thanks for joining us.
The reason we wanted to start this podcast is simple. Since the Federal Budget, we've had more conversations than ever with clients, investors, and people following the property market who are trying to understand what's really happening.
There's certainly no shortage of information available, but what people are looking for is context. They want to know what the numbers are saying and, just as importantly, what we're actually seeing on the ground every day.
Our goal is to bring those two perspectives together. We'll look at the latest market data, compare it with what's happening in Brisbane, and hopefully provide some practical insights that help you make better property decisions.
Trent:
Exactly. One thing that's stood out since the Budget is that much of the commentary has focused on the negatives.
Our aim isn't to ignore those changes. It's to provide balanced information that helps people continue making informed property decisions.
Markets change, but the fundamentals of buying the right property in the right location remain the same. You simply need to understand the current market and adapt your strategy accordingly.
Curtis:
Today we're looking at Cotality's monthly housing data and comparing those numbers with what we're seeing on the ground.
The first thing to understand is that the data is delayed.
Most property transactions settle between 30 and 90 days after the contract date, so the figures released each month are based on settled sales rather than what's happening today.
That means there's always a lag between the published statistics and current market conditions.
Depending on what's happening in the market, the situation today may already be a little stronger or a little weaker than the data suggests.
That's why it's important to combine the numbers with current market observations, rather than relying on the statistics alone.
With that in mind, let's look at what the latest data is telling us.
Cotality's latest housing report shows national dwelling values declined by 0.7% over the past three months.
That's a national figure, and it's important to remember that every market behaves differently.
Sydney is performing differently to Brisbane, Perth is different again, and the same applies to regional markets. There isn't one Australian property market—there are many individual markets moving at different speeds.
Our view is that, because of the lag in settlement data, the national decline is likely to become more evident over the coming months as more recent sales are reflected in the figures.
Trent:
Brisbane is telling a different story.
The latest data still shows monthly dwelling values increasing by just under half a percent.
As Curtis mentioned, some of those settlements relate to contracts signed before the Federal Budget, so they're reflecting market conditions from earlier in the year.
Quarterly growth has moderated to 1.3%, which is lower than we'veseen previously, but annual growth is still sitting at around 17.5%.
So while the pace of growth is slowing, Brisbane continues to be a strong market.
One thing we're noticing on the ground is the level of contactwe're receiving from selling agents.
As buyers' agents, we're regularly contacted about properties before or during campaigns, and over the past month those calls have increased dramatically.
That's usually a sign that selling conditions are becoming more challenging and that the market is beginning to shift.
Curtis:
Something else I've noticed—andI'm sure you're seeing the same—is that agents are now sending through lists ofoff-market opportunities asking, "Do you have a buyer for these?"
I'm spending more time clearing my inbox of off-market opportunities and current listings than I have at any point over the past 12 months.
In Brisbane particularly, there are a lot more off-market opportunities available. I think that's because many vendors are hesitant to launch a full marketing campaign given the uncertainty in the market. They don't necessarily want to spend $5,000 to $10,000 on photography, advertising and online listings unless they're confident they'llachieve the price they want.
Instead, they're testing the market quietly to see if a deal can be done before committing to a public campaign.
There's a lot happening behind the scenes that you're simply not seeing on realestate.com.au each week.
Trent:
That's one of the advantages of being buyers' agents. We have established relationships with selling agents, so we gain access to those opportunities.
As an example, I recently sent one buyer brief to around 200 agents across Brisbane. It took five minutes.
Six months ago, that probably would have generated three responses. Last week it generated more than 110responses within two days.
That's a significant shift.
It reinforces what we've been talking about—today's numbers are only telling part of the story, and we expect the market data to continue changing over the coming months.
Curtis:
Exactly.
You'll hear people say that listing volumes are down, and that's true if you're only looking at public listings.
But I don't think there are necessarily fewer properties available to buy.
It's more about whereyou're sourcing them.
Trent:
That's right.
Curtis mentioned the cost earlier. By the time a seller pays for professional photography, marketing and advertising on the major property portals, they're often spending between$5,000 and $10,000 to launch a campaign.
Given the uncertainty we're seeing today, it's understandable that some vendors would prefer to avoid those costs if they can secure a buyer through their existing agent network.
Curtis:
The same uncertainty exists on the buyer side as well.
A lot of buyers are asking, "Am I buying at the right time?"
Nobody wants to purchase a property and immediately feel like they've overpaid.
The important thing is to assess what the property is worth today, based on today's market—not what it was worth three months ago or what you think it might be worth in another three months.
Trent:
Exactly.
Trying to perfectly time the market is incredibly difficult because property is fundamentally a long-term investment.
You're generally not buying with the intention of selling again in 12 months.
One of the best pieces of advice I received early in my real estate career was simple:
The best time to buy property is today.
Be confident in the advice you'vereceived, undertake the right due diligence, and focus on buying a quality asset for the long term.
Curtis:
We were talking about this before we started recording.
Markets like this—where competition has eased slightly—can actually create excellent buying opportunities.
When there's less competition, you have greater negotiating leverage.
You can have more meaningful conversations with agents, better understand a vendor's motivation, and in some cases purchase a quality property for 5–10% below what comparable sales suggest it may be worth.
If you're buying a quality asset with a long-term outlook, that puts you in a very strong position.
There's no reliable way to pick the exact bottom of the market.
Trent:
No one can do it.
No matter how long you've worked in property, nobody knows exactly where the bottom is.
You only recognise it after it'spassed.
Curtis:
Exactly.
By then, you've often lost one of the biggest advantages available to buyers—reduced competition.
Once confidence returns and prices begin moving again, buyers come back into the market and negotiating opportunities become much harder to find.
Curtis:
One question we're asked all the time is, "What does your money actually buy in today's market?"
The reality is there are very distinct segments within the Brisbane market. Different price points behave differently, attract different buyers and respond differently to changing conditions.
One of the more interesting parts of the monthly data is the breakdown by price quartiles—the lower quartile, the middle market and the upper quartile. It gives a much better understanding of where demand is sitting.
What's been clear for some timenow is that the higher end of the market has softened more than the lower end.
That probably isn't a surprise to anyone who's been following the market closely, but it's an important trend.
The lower end has remained far more resilient, largely because that's where we're seeing the strongest buyer demand.
You've got investors, first-homebuyers and owner-occupiers all competing in those more affordable price brackets.
Trent:
Exactly.
There's simply more depth of demand at those price points.
The premium end of the market naturally has a smaller buyer pool, whereas entry-level properties appeal to a much broader range of buyers.
The latest quarterly figures reflect that.
The lower quartile of the Brisbane market recorded growth of around 2.6%, the middle quartile grew 1.6%,while the upper quartile was effectively flat at 0.4%.
As we've said throughout this episode, though, this is lagged data.
As more recent settlements begin flowing through over the coming months, we may see those numbers soften a little further.
The bigger takeaway is thatthere's still strong activity at the more affordable end of the market.
I was at a townhouse open home over the weekend in the mid-$800,000 range, and there were nine buyer groups through.
Most were first-home buyers, with a handful of investors.
We saw similar numbers at several other inspections that day.
There's still plenty of active demand for quality properties.
Curtis:
From my perspective, having worked through a number of different property cycles over the past 20 years, I'd actually describe that as a fairly normal market.
If you've only entered the industry over the past four or five years, your benchmark has been the COVID boom, where almost every property attracted huge crowds and sold exceptionally quickly.
That's not normal.
Back in 2011 and 2012, having nine genuine buyer groups through an open home would have been considered an excellent result.
So sometimes the perception that the market has suddenly become weak comes from comparing today's conditions with an unusually strong period rather than with a typical market.
Trent:
And quality still matters.
Even within the same price bracket, not every property performs equally.
You can have two properties listed at exactly the same price, but one will attract strong competition while the other struggles to generate interest.
Quality assets continue to stand out.
Buyers are becoming more selective, but they're still prepared to compete for the right property.
Curtis:
Exactly.
Good properties continue to sell well.
It's the average properties—or those that are overpriced—that are taking longer to move.
That's a very healthy market.
It's no longer a case of everything selling simply because it's available.
Instead, buyers are making more considered decisions, and that's where quality, location and long-termfundamentals become increasingly important.
Curtis:
Something else investors shouldkeep in mind is the rental market.
A lot of our clients ask, "If I buy this property, who is actually going to rent it?"
It's a fair question, particularly if the property they're buying isn't necessarily a home they would choose to live in themselves.
The reality is Brisbane's rental market remains incredibly tight.
Trent:
It really hasn't changed.
We've had a tight rental market for several years now, and because we have our own property management team, we see what's happening every week.
If a property is priced appropriately and presents well, we're generally securing quality tenants within the first week.
That reflects the ongoing shortage of rental accommodation across Brisbane, particularly at the more affordable end of the market.
Just as buyers are competing for quality properties, renters are competing for quality homes as well.
Curtis:
And I don't think that supply story has improved.
If anything, there's a risk it becomes even tighter.
One consequence of the recent policy changes is that, if fewer investors enter the market, fewer properties transition into the rental pool.
That reduces rental supply even further.
Nobody wants to see rents become unaffordable, but from an investment perspective, it does mean well-selectedproperties should continue to attract strong tenants and deliver solid rental returns.
Trent:
We're seeing some interesting buying opportunities because of that.
For example, if a property is already tenanted, many owner-occupiers simply move on because they don't want to wait several months for vacant possession.
That can reduce competition.
Sometimes those properties are also leased below current market rent because the tenant has been there for a long time.
For investors, that can represent an opportunity.
You may be able to purchase the property well, retain a quality tenant, and eventually bring the rent back in line with the current market when appropriate.
Curtis:
Exactly.
If there's still six months remaining on the lease, it may not suit an owner-occupier at all.
For an investor, though, it'soften a completely different proposition.
Those are the types of opportunities we're looking for.
Curtis:
Let's shift away from the statistics for a moment and talk about the broader market conditions.
One thing that's worth mentioning is auction clearance rates.
Social media and mainstream media often focus heavily on auction results, but Brisbane isn't an auction-drivenmarket like Sydney or Melbourne.
That's why we don't place too much emphasis on Brisbane auction clearance rates when assessing overall market conditions.
Most properties here are still sold by private treaty, so auction data only tells part of the story.
Trent:
That's right.
If you're reading headlines about auction clearance rates, remember they're heavily influenced by what'shappening in Sydney and Melbourne.
They don't necessarily reflectwhat's happening in Brisbane.
From our perspective, we'd rather focus on buyer activity, property inspections, negotiations and conversations with agents because they provide a much clearer picture of current market conditions.
Curtis:
One thing continues to give us confidence in Brisbane over the longer term.
The fundamentals haven't changed.
Population growth remains strong.
Infrastructure investment continues across the city.
Housing supply remains constrained.
Vacancy rates are still exceptionally low.
Those are the underlying factors that have supported Brisbane's growth over recent years, and they're still in place today.
Market conditions will always fluctuate, but those long-term fundamentals are what we focus on when assessing investment opportunities.
Curtis:
To wrap things up, let's leave everyone with three key takeaways from today's discussion.
Despite all the headlines and the changing market conditions, the fundamentals of good property investing haven'tchanged.
Whether the market is rising, falling or moving sideways, we're still looking for the same things: strongowner-occupier appeal, quality locations, limited supply and long-term demand drivers.
Those fundamentals continue to underpin good investment decisions.
Trent:
My second takeaway is thatrelationships matter more in this type of market.
As buyers' agents, we're having more direct conversations with selling agents than we've had for quite some time.
That gives us a much better understanding of vendor motivation and creates opportunities to negotiate better outcomes for our clients.
There's genuine value to be found in today's market if you know where to look.
The third point is the number ofoff-market opportunities we're seeing.
Having the right network and staying connected with active selling agents is becoming increasingly important.
Many vendors are choosing to test the market privately before launching a public campaign, which means buyers relying solely on the major property websites may never see some of the best opportunities.
Curtis:
Exactly.
The average buyer simply doesn'thave access to those conversations.
That's one of the advantages of working with people who are speaking with agents every day, and understandwhat's happening behind the scenes.
Markets like this often reward preparation, relationships and good advice more than perfect timing.
Trent:
Absolutely.
There's still plenty of opportunity in Brisbane.
You just need to approach the market with the right strategy.
Curtis:
Well, that's a wrap on our very first episode of Brisbane Property Pulse.
Thanks for taking the time to listen.
Each month we'll unpack the latestmarket data, explain what it means for Brisbane investors and share what we'reseeing on the ground so you can make more informed property decisions.
If you've enjoyed today's episode, we'd really appreciate it if you subscribed and shared it with someone who'sinterested in Brisbane property.
And if you have any questions about the market or you'd like to discuss your own investment strategy, feel free to get in touch with the team at Investeps Property.
Thanks again for listening.
We'll see you in the next episode.
Trent:
Thanks, everyone. We'll see you next time.
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