Brisbane Property Intelligence | November 2026
Brisbane is now leading the national downturn, and rates have risen again. Here's what that means for buyers and investors.
Brisbane recorded the sharpest fall of any capital city for the second month running in October.
Cotality's latest Home Value Index shows Brisbane dwelling values fell 2.0% over the month and 6.1% over the past three months. Values are now 8.3% below their May peak, and annual growth has all but disappeared, at just 0.4%.
Then, on Melbourne Cup Day, the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate by a further 25 basis points to 4.85%. It's the fifth increase this year and takes the cash rate to its highest level since late 2008.
For anyone watching the headlines, it’s been a turbulent few months. However, for buyers and investors, these conditions are creating a good buying market, particularly for those in a position to take advantage of them.
Brisbane market snapshot
- Monthly change: −2.0%
- Quarterly change: −6.1%
- Annual change: +0.4%
- Median dwelling value: $1,018,401
- Total annual return: 3.9%
- Distance from market peak (May 2026): −8.3%
Source: Cotality Home Value Index, November 2026 (data to 31 October).
A month ago, Brisbane values were still 5.9% higher than a year earlier. That figure has now fallen to 0.4%. The median dwelling value has dropped by around $30,000 in a single month, from $1,048,880 to $1,018,401.
Cotality notes that the mid-sized capitals, where values grew strongly for six years, are now "well and truly in a correction", and that virtually every suburb across Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide recorded a fall in values over the past three months.
The longer view is still important. Brisbane values remain 46.1% higher than five years ago and 98.2% higher than ten years ago. Most long-term owners are sitting on a substantial equity buffer, even after this year's falls.
The fifth rate rise: what it means
On 3 November, the RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.85%. Unlike September's unanimous decision, it was split: six board members voted to increase rates and three voted to hold.
The RBA said inflation remains elevated and broadly based, and it has revised its inflation forecasts materially higher. Annual headline inflation rose to 4.3% in September and trimmed mean inflation to 3.7%, both above the RBA's 2–3% target range. The RBA now expects inflation to stay above 3% for the coming year.
It also acknowledged that "housing prices have fallen significantly" and that the unemployment rate has risen. Unemployment reached 4.7% in September, the highest since 2021.
For buyers, the effect is straightforward. Cotality estimates that a fifth rate rise takes the reduction in borrowing capacity through this cycle to around 11.5%, or more than $105,000 for a median-income household. Average variable rates for owner-occupiers are expected to move to around 6.7%, and investor rates are close to 7%.
If you have a pre-approval, it's worth checking it with your broker before you make an offer. Our Smart Property Finance partners can help. We don't predict interest rates, and the RBA has said it will be guided by the data.
We looked at the question many buyers are asking, whether to wait for rates to fall, in Should You Wait for Interest Rates to Fall Before Buying Property?
A buyer's market, with fewer buyers
Brisbane home sales over the past three months were 29% lower than a year earlier, one of the sharpest falls of any capital, alongside Sydney (−30%).
Across the capital cities, selling conditions have moved firmly in favour of buyers:
- homes are taking a median of 39 days to sell, the longest since August 2020
- the median vendor discount has widened to 4.7%, the largest since May 2019
- advertised listings are at their highest level for this time of year since 2019, even though fresh listings are running almost 18% below average.
Cotality's research director Tim Lawless put it simply: buyers have more stock to choose from and more leverage, "but despite this being a buyer's market, they are noticeably absent".
That's the defining feature of the market right now. The conditions favour buyers, but many buyers have stepped back, held back by borrowing capacity, confidence or a wish to wait and see.
Houses and units
Source: Cotality Home Value Index, November 2026.
Brisbane house values have now slipped below where they were a year ago, while units are still 3.4% higher over the year. Both fell sharply over the quarter, so neither is escaping the correction.
Units continue to offer higher yields, but as we covered in Why Brisbane's Unit Market Is Defying Expectations, building quality, body corporate costs and future supply matter as much as the headline figure.
The rental market is easing
Rental markets continued to loosen through spring. The national vacancy rate rose to 2.3% in October, the highest since January 2022, and vacancy rates were higher than a year ago in every capital city except Darwin.
Rents are still rising, but more slowly. National rents rose 0.9% over the past three months, the smallest increase since January 2025. In Brisbane, house rents were up 6.7% over the year and unit rents 6.1%.
With rents rising and values falling, Brisbane's gross dwelling yield has improved to 3.7%. Even so, Cotality notes that yields are "still nowhere near the levels needed to deliver a neutral or positive cash flow" once interest, insurance, strata and maintenance costs are included, and investors in established property will lose some negative gearing benefits from July next year.
For landlords, that makes pricing to the current market more important. A rental appraisal is a good starting point.
Brisbane still isn't one market
Even in a correction, results vary widely across Greater Brisbane. These were the strongest SA3 markets over the past 12 months:
- Ipswich Hinterland: +7.9%
- Sherwood–Indooroopilly: +3.8%
- Redcliffe: +3.6%
- Narangba–Burpengary: +3.5%
- Caboolture: +3.1%
- Beaudesert: +3.0%
- The Hills District: +3.0%
- Ipswich Inner: +2.8%
- Loganlea–Carbrook: +2.6%
- Beenleigh: +2.6%
Growth across even the strongest areas has slowed sharply. A month ago, Sherwood–Indooroopilly led Greater Brisbane at 10.7%. It's now 3.8%. Areas across Ipswich, Moreton Bay and Logan feature heavily, which is a reminder that affordability is still shaping where buyers are active. Curtis and Trent explored these differences in Episode 7 of Brisbane Property Pulse.
What we're seeing on the ground
In Episode 11 of Brisbane Property Pulse, Curtis sat down with Julia Doyle, Partner at Place Camp Hill, to hear what selling agents are seeing from the other side of the table. Her observations line up closely with what we're experiencing in our own negotiations.
Buyer sentiment has swung from fear of missing out to fear of overpaying. There are still buyers around, Julia said, but fewer are coming through open homes, and many are taking their foot off the pedal to wait and see.
Good opportunities are being missed. Properties in great streets that need a little work are taking longer to sell, as buyers lean towards finished homes. For buyers prepared to look past paint and floors, that's often where value now sits.
Seller motivation matters more than ever. Vendor expectations are still generally sitting above the market, but motivated sellers, such as owners living overseas or investors selling a property they've held for years and never lived in, are adjusting.
Turning up still counts. A property passing in at auction isn't a sign something is wrong with it. Julia's advice to buyers was to attend the auction even if you don't plan to bid, so you're there to negotiate if it passes in. With fewer buyers in the room, there's more time to talk to the agent and understand what the seller needs.
This is where a buyer's agent can make a real difference. With fewer competing buyers, there's more room to negotiate on price and terms, but only if you understand the seller's motivation, know what the property is worth today and are ready to act. As a qualified valuer, Curtis helps clients do exactly that, whether we're sourcing the property or helping them assess and negotiate on one they've found, or bidding on their behalf at auction.
What hasn't changed
Cotality expects housing conditions to stay under downward pressure into next year, with the decline on track to be the largest in at least forty years. But it also points to two important supports:
- persistently low levels of new housing being built, held back by high construction costs and project feasibility
- ongoing population growth, which continues to add to underlying housing demand while new supply remains insufficient.
Its base case remains a gradual drift lower in values rather than a more material downturn, with the path depending increasingly on inflation, interest rates and the labour market.
What does this mean for Brisbane property buyers and investors?
Brisbane is in a correction. Values are falling faster than in any other capital, borrowing costs have risen again and sales activity is well down. Those conditions shouldn't be understated.
But they also mean something that has been rare for most of the past six years: buyers who are ready, with finance in place, have time, choice and genuine negotiating power.
Rather than trying to time the bottom of the market, we'd suggest focusing on the four questions that matter for any property:
- Location: where is it, and what supports demand there?
- Property: what exactly are you buying?
- Buyer: who else will want to live in it or buy it, and why?
- Supply: how easily can more of it be built nearby?
A falling market can improve the price and terms on which you buy a quality property. It doesn't turn a poor property into a good investment.
If you'd like to talk through how these conditions affect your plans, get in touch with the Investeps team.
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