Should You Wait for Interest Rates to Fall Before Buying Property?

Why waiting for a lower rate can mean trading one cost for another, and the better questions to ask before you decide

"I'll wait until rates come down."

It's one of the most common things we hear from buyers at the moment, and it's easy to understand why.

The Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate to 4.60% on 29 September, its fourth increase this year and the highest setting in almost 15 years. At the same time, Brisbane dwelling values fell 1.5% in September and are now 5.4% below their May peak. Cotality's daily index shows values fell a further 1.4% over the 28 days to 13 October.

With borrowing costs rising and values falling, waiting can feel like the careful option. Wait for prices to drop further, wait for rates to come down, then buy.

The difficulty is that those two things rarely happen at the same time.

Why waiting for both lower prices and lower rates is harder than it sounds

Interest rates are one of the biggest influences on how many buyers are in the market and how much they can spend.

When rates rise, borrowing capacity falls, fewer buyers qualify for finance and competition eases. Cotality estimates the four rate rises since February have reduced the borrowing capacity of a median-income household by almost $90,000, or around 9%.

That's what Brisbane is experiencing now. Cotality estimates Brisbane home sales over the past three months were 27.2% lower than a year earlier, the largest drop of any capital city. Homes in Brisbane took a median of 38 days to sell over the three months to September, more than double the 17 days of a year earlier, and total listings were 60.4% higher than a year ago in the four weeks to 11 October.

When rates fall, the reverse tends to happen. Borrowing capacity rises, confidence improves and buyers who have been waiting return to the market at the same time.

We saw this very recently. In 2025, the RBA cut the cash rate three times. Cotality's national Home Value Index rose 8.6% over the year, the strongest calendar-year gain since 2021, and Brisbane values rose by more than 14%.

So a buyer waiting for rates to fall may well get a lower rate. But they're also likely to be competing with many more buyers, with less choice, less time and less room to negotiate.

The trade-off in numbers

Here's a simplified example to show how the trade-off can work. It's illustrative only and isn't a forecast.

Buyer A buys a $1,000,000 property today with an $800,000 loan. At an interest rate of 6.50% over 30 years, repayments are around $5,057 a month. That rate is in line with current lending: Cotality reports average variable rates on new loans of 6.23% for owner-occupiers and 6.40% for investors in August, before the September increase.

Buyer B waits. Rates fall by 0.50%, but competition returns and a comparable property now costs 5% more, or $1,050,000. Borrowing 80% of the price, Buyer B's loan is $840,000. At 6.00%, repayments are around $5,036 a month.

Their monthly repayments are almost the same. But Buyer B has paid $50,000 more for a similar property, needed a larger deposit, paid more stamp duty and carries a bigger loan. If rates later rise again, that larger loan costs more.

Buyer A, on the other hand, may be able to refinance if rates do fall.

That's the key difference. The interest rate can change many times over the life of a loan. The price you pay is fixed on the day you buy.

Of course, the example could play out differently. Prices could fall further before rates come down, and that's exactly why nobody can promise a "right time". The point is that waiting for a lower rate isn't free. It usually means accepting a different set of costs.

Nobody knows when rates will fall

Waiting for rates to fall also assumes you know when that will happen.

Over the past two years, rates have moved in both directions: three cuts in 2025, followed by four increases in 2026. The RBA has said inflation remains elevated. Headline inflation rose to 4.0% in August, while trimmed mean inflation held at 3.6%, above the RBA's 2–3% target range. Cotality has noted the possibility of a further increase when the RBA next meets on 3 November.

We don't try to predict interest rates, and we'd be cautious of anyone who says they can. A plan that depends on rates falling by a particular date is a plan built on something outside your control.

When waiting can be the right decision

None of this means everyone should buy now. For some people, waiting is the sensible choice.

It may make sense to wait if:

• your finance isn't ready yet, or your borrowing capacity has fallen below what you need for the property you want
• repayments at today's rate, or a slightly higher rate, would leave you without a comfortable buffer
• your income or employment is uncertain
• you're likely to need to sell again within a few years
• you haven't yet defined what you're buying and why.

Those are good reasons to wait. They're about your own position, not about guessing the next move in interest rates.

Better questions to ask than "Will rates fall?"

Rather than trying to time the rate cycle, we'd suggest starting with questions you can actually answer.

1. Can I comfortably hold this property at today's rate, and if rates rise a little further? Lenders already assess your loan at a higher rate than you'll pay. It's still worth running your own numbers, including insurance, rates, maintenance and, for investors, vacancy periods. Our Smart Property Finance partners can help you understand where you stand.

2. Am I planning to hold this property for the long term? Over ten years or more, the quality of the asset and the price you pay will usually matter far more than where rates sit in the month you buy.

3. Is this the right property, at the right price? A softer market doesn't make every property a good buy. A lower asking price doesn't necessarily mean good value, and a property that has sat on the market for months may have a good reason for it.

4. What can I gain from today's conditions? Right now, finance-ready buyers have things they haven't had for several years: time to complete due diligence, more properties to compare and more room to negotiate on price and terms.

What today's market offers buyers who are ready

In Episode 6 of Brisbane Property Pulse, Curtis and Trent asked whether now is the time to buy. Their answer was that a softer market doesn't automatically make it a good or bad time. It makes property selection, valuation and negotiation more important.

In practice, buyers who are ready to act can currently:

• take the time to inspect properly. Our property inspection checklist covers what to look for, listen for and check.
• compare more options before committing, and walk away from properties that don't stack up
• negotiate on price and conditions, including finance and building and pest clauses, where vendors are more flexible
• access off-market opportunities, as more vendors look for alternatives to auction. Cotality notes that with clearance rates subdued and listings elevated, more sellers appear to be favouring private treaty sales.

Why having a valuer on your side matters more right now

When prices are moving, the asking price becomes a less reliable guide to value. Brisbane vendors are now discounting by a median 4.7% from their original asking price, up from 2.7% a year ago, according to Cotality.

A discount like that can feel like a win. But a lower price doesn't automatically mean good value. Recent settled sales may reflect conditions from several months ago, while current negotiations may be pointing lower still.

That's where having a qualified valuer as part of your buyer's agent team makes a real difference. At Investeps, every recommendation is backed by valuation expertise. Curtis weighs settled sales against current negotiations and how long similar homes have been on the market, so you know what a property is worth today, what to offer, and when to walk away. It sits at the centre of how we assess and negotiate for our clients.

If you already own property

Rate rises affect owners too. If you're a landlord, higher holding costs make it more important that your property is let quickly and priced correctly. Brisbane's rental vacancy rate has eased to 2.1%, according to Cotality, and rental growth is slowing nationally. A property that's overpriced or poorly presented may sit empty longer than it would have a year ago. A rental appraisal is a good starting point, and our property management team can help you stay ahead of maintenance and lease risks.

If you're thinking of upsizing, you'll be selling and buying in the same market. Selling may take longer than it did a year ago, but you'll also be buying with less competition. Curtis and Trent covered how to manage the finance in Buying & Selling at the Same Time.

And if you'd like a clear view of how your existing properties are positioned, a portfolio review can help you decide what to do next.

The Investeps view

Waiting for interest rates to fall can feel like the safe option. But lower rates usually bring buyers back, and with them, more competition, less choice and less room to negotiate.

Instead of waiting for the perfect rate, we'd encourage buyers to wait for two things they can control: the right finance position and the right property.

If your finances are in order, you can comfortably hold the property and the fundamentals stack up, the rate cycle matters less than you might think. If they aren't, that's a good reason to wait, whatever happens to rates.

If you'd like to talk through whether buying now makes sense for you, get in touch with our team.

This article is general information only and doesn't take into account your personal circumstances. Please speak with a licensed finance professional before making borrowing decisions.

Sources

• RBA monetary policy decision, 29 September 2026
• Cotality Home Value Index, October 2026
• Cotality Monthly Housing Chart Pack, October 2026
• ABS Monthly CPI Indicator, August 2026
• 2025 housing results, CommBank Newsroom, January 2026